You didn't possibly think I would let this slide by without comment....

Yesterday, one of my personal favorites, Alan Caldwell, published his prediction for the US Division over on Small Thoughts At Large.

In summary, he has the US Division ranked as follows:
1. Portland
2. Everett
3. Spokane
4. Tri-Cities
5. Seattle

Now, let's be calm and rational for a second. I know, I was not happy at first. But, Caldwell admits "picking 2nd, 3rd, and 4th here was a tough call, I think all three of those teams are reasonably closely matched. I gave it a shot but really, any final order of those three teams would not surprise me."

When questioned by an Anonymous commenter (based on statements, an AMS fan), Caldwell further states: "I'm in the Eastern conference so I have not seen the Ams play yet. I don't expect to see them play more than one or two times a year. There's a reason why the B.C. and U.S. divisions always get done last when I do these things. I know the least about them and mostly do it based on rosters and statistics rather than firsthand knowledge."

All that being said, here's what I have to say...

I don't doubt that Portland will be good. I would not, however, put them first in the division. They are still too new to this whole concept of winning. Having played against them a couple times already, the AMS have found a way to get under their skin pretty effectively and they crumble and take very bad penalties. Yes, they have size which can indeed be beneficial down the road (addresses an issue raised in Caldwell's comments), but they certainly got outskated, out hustled by the AMS. Yes, they have good goaltending, but even Kurtis Mucha got lit up the other night when they self-destructed against Everett. I don't know if it's inexperience or overconfidence, but I just don't put them first in the division.

Everett in 2nd? The 'Tips are the one team in the division as the biggest unknown to me. So far, this early in the season, they have done better than I imagined they would. How that goes on down the road for them, I have no idea. It's also a team that I haven't seen play yet except in pre-season. Therefore, I'll cop out and reserve judgment for now. Or I'll give a non-prediction prediction, they may or may not be 2nd in the division.

Spokane is close behind Everett in the unknown. They seem like a team searching for identity. Will their scorers like Wahl score? Will Beach be a benefit to the team as he mostly has been so far? Or will he continue with bad habits of the past? Chiefs are still missing one of their top D with Spurgeon out. Though getting Cowen back from Ottawa will help them immensely. I didn't think goaltending would be an issue, but Reid had a terrible game in Tri a couple weeks ago. Not that their whole goalie situation should be based on one game, but it certainly raised my eyebrows. I think consistency will be an issue, I see them middle of the pack in the division.

I agree with Caldwell's prediction of Seattle being at the bottom of the pile. They don't have a lot of depth. The only thing that will help them (as AMS have seen) is the goaltending of Calvin Pickard.

As for my AMS, I think once again the US Division is the toughest in the league. I would love for them to win the division 3 years in a row. They have the talent to do it, they apparently still have a coach who can get them there (so far). People obviously question the goaltending duo as they are young, small, and inexperienced. But Owsley has "carried the mail" so far (new nickname for Drew is Postmaster General, btw). No, he's probably not going to steal any games like Chet or Carey (or Calvin Pickard!) but he won't lose too many for them. Yes, he's going to have bad games. Sitting in the stands the 2nd half of last season hurt him (and Marty). If Marty is called upon, I have faith that he will answer that call. If the goddamn Russian shows up (I hope not at this point) he'll have to battle it out with Drew for the starting position. But I'm so flipping sick of talking about From Russia With Glove.

The AMS are the smallest team in the division (yay Caldwell's stats!) but they have been (I think) for the last couple seasons and it's worked out well for them. They seem to have done the right conditioning to stay fresh even in the 3rd period. They have some grit and hustle. And depth. Being able to roll four lines on a pretty consistent basis is going to be beneficial down the road as the top guys won't be as tired.

Do I think AMS have enough to be 1st in the division? No idea. Scoring by committee is a risky move, though it's proven to be working so far. Hiller has done an excellent job so far. Remember, this is the team that has been chosen to be last for the last 3-4 seasons and they were anything but last. As Nachbaur always said, and Hiller said it the other night too, you have to have the belief you can do it, that you can win, that you are not a last place team. That believe will carry you a long way.

Honestly, I have no idea how the division will shake out. Caldwell's bold prediction could come true. I know it'll be fun to watch. And at time frustrating. That's the beauty and agony of being an AMS fan.