Backhand Shelf theories

If you haven't yet checked out "Backhand Shelf" you're doing yourself a disservice.  The writers over there, headed up by one of my faves Justin Bourne, are good and prolific.

Today one of the writers, Cam Charron, takes a look at scoring in the WHL, and theorizes (and bets money) on it.

I went out to see the Kamloops Blazers Saturday night with a couple of friends. The 5-2 result in favour of the home team is rather elementary compared to what happened in the course of the game. I frequently butt heads with a guy I know out here. He’s a straight-up traditionalist when it comes to hockey and has no time for the more progressive theories that surround hockey.

So I’ve started making bets with him.

After the second period on Saturday night, with the Blazers leading the Edmonton Oil Kings 3-0 and outshooting them 37-7, (the shot count was probably generous to Edmonton. I don’t think they touched the puck in the second) I confidently stated that Edmonton would out-shoot Kamloops in the third period. How come?

My friend is vaguely aware of all of “my” theories, including the idea that a team coming from behind will generate more shots on goal. It’s not so much theory as it is fact that teams will play to the score and the leading team is more likely to give up more shots. Is this driven by strategy or psychology? I’m not sure and therefore can’t answer, but I can confidently state that, especially at higher levels of hockey, there is a noticeable effect on which team is taking the shots as another pulls ahead.

So, we watched as Edmonton scored two goals to pull it to within 3-2. With each goal, Kamloops played with a touch more urgency to re-gain their lead. With each goal, Edmonton’s next one became harder to achieve. This effect isn’t noticed by the casual crowd, mostly made up of old-timers who aren’t used to seeing their home team lose like they have in the past decade, so they hurled insults at the team, convinced that the Blazers were just dogging it after 40 minutes of hard work.

Kamloops’ JC Lipon scored on a rebound on a 2-on-1 to restore a cushion for the Blazers, and Chase Souto sealed it late with about five minutes to go. Still, the damage was done as I looked over to my confused friend. How did the Kamloops Blazers, leading 3-0 and outshooting their road-stricken opponent by more than 5:1 suddenly get out-shot in the third period 16-9?

Until we know for sure and coaches learn how to fix this trend, I will continue to make easy money by making the same bet every single time a team is dominating on the scoreboard after two periods. I don’t think I’ll keep making very many friends if I keep at this, however.  (Backhand Shelf)